Will debt be China’s undoing?

On the Chinese Economy

Xi Jinping sits in Beijing, laying out the foundations and eyeing the opportunities to surpass USA’s GDP by 2025. Meanwhile, the world is wondering how the People’s Republic of China would continue Deng Xiaoping’s ‘‘peaceful growth’’, in the brink of a crisis resembling the one that caused the fall of Lehmann Brothers.

Things can be quite disturbing when a major economy is hit hard; even more disturbing when the monster which hit it has been one growing under its shade for several years.

In the eyes of leading Economics experts, the Chinese central government is to blame for the status quo. Although it is far from chaos state as of now, there’s always the possibility that Beijing would fail to take back the control of things by pumping in reserve money, as they have reportedly done several times in the past.

A look back to the recent past–the aftermath of Chairman Mao’s death, Xiaoping’s economic policies, China’s ever growing manufacturing sector, and the strategy of keeping a low profile–beautifully adds up to China rising as a rather peaceful nation, compared to those of the West, who have arguably relied on hard power to secure their places in the New World Order. But that clear conscience and the fact that China has embraced an alternative political system to achieve their growth (despite USA’s claims that democracy is the best mode of governance in the modern political economy, and their lengthy engagements to ‘‘induce’’ democracy upon other nations) would prove nothing if Beijing cannot contain itself and let the debt horses run wild.

Like many people, I tend to be a bit emotional regarding these matters. I have always wanted to see the West take a serious hit, to be honest, and I have hoped that the consequences would revolutionise the mechanisms of the world order as it were.

But this might seem a bit far-fetched if the materialisation of the Asian Century was to suffer, thanks to crises that engulf Asian economies. And this time, the west cannot be held responsible for causing the damage. If Beijing wants its banks to continue lending like this, even though the debt is government owned and even though their USD 4 trillion reserves could counter the debts’ effect, the mere fact that their corporate image being tarnished would bring about unforeseen predicaments.

Even I would doubt China’s strategies from then on.


Comments

Leave a Reply